Covid third wave may not hit India: Experts

At a time when some states have stated that the COVID third wave has already arrived, some health experts say that the COVID third wave may not hit India. Experts said that unless hit hard by a new Covid variant, chances of a third wave battering India are now slim. They are of opinion that the country has not encountered any lineage of the new coronavirus so far after Delta wreaked havoc earlier this year. They said that the wave occurs when there is a huge surge of an infectious disease.

Professor Manindra Agrawal of IIT Kanpur said that if there is no significantly faster spreading mutant, the third wave will be a ripple. 


The Sutra Model and Covid third wave

Notably, professor Agrawal and two other experts have authored the SUTRA model that tracks the progression of Covid-19 in India. SUTRA stands for a susceptible-undetected-tested (positive)-removed approach. The model helps in tracking covid progression and will help in tracking the covid third wave

It must be noted that the country has already faced two waves so far — the first in August-September of 2020 and the second starting March this year.

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Professor Agrawal further said that the chances of a covid third wave in India looked slim now. He added with the Kerala numbers expected to improve, the Covid situation would look much better in the country. He also added that there were minimum chances of covid third wave hitting the country. He was talking to newspersons while sharing this information.

On the other hand, Mumbai Mayor Kishori Pednekar on Tuesday said a covid third wave of the pandemic has already arrived. “Third wave is not coming, it is already here,” she told reporters at a function. “In Nagpur, it has been already announced and everyone should take care,” she said.

Later, her office issued a press statement saying what she meant was that the third wave of COVID-19 was on the “threshold of Mumbai”.

“Given the experience of the first two waves, it is in our hands to to stop it,” she was quoted as saying. The mayor was talking about the covid third wave.

Vaccine drive

The Union Health Ministry on Tuesday said that the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered in the country has crossed 70 crore, with the last 10 crore doses being given in just 13 days. The coronavirus has to be defeated and vaccination is the way to victory, Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya said.

“Soaring higher on COVID-19 vaccination under PM (Prime Minister) @NarendraModi ji’s leadership. 70,00,00,000 vaccine doses administered to date,” he tweeted.

Notably, the countrywide vaccination drive was rolled out on January 16 with healthcare workers (HCWs) getting inoculated in the first phase. The vaccination of frontline workers (FLWs) started from February 2.

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India on Tuesday recorded 31,222 fresh cases of coronavirus infection taking the total tally of COVID-19 cases to 3,30,58,843, while the active cases were recorded below four lakh. The death toll has climbed to 4,41,042 with 290 fresh fatalities, according to the data updated at 8 AM. The case fatality rate was recorded at 1.33 per cent.

The active cases have declined to 3,92,864 comprising 1.19 per cent of the total infections, while the national COVID-19 recovery rate was recorded at 97.48 per cent, the ministry said.

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